Current election polls and polling data from Noto Sondaggi

Latest voting intention survey by Noto Sondaggi for Albania

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Albania conducted by Noto Sondaggi, the parties received the following results: PS 45.5%, PD-AN 44.5%, LSI 5.8% and PSD 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2000 people during the period 19.04.2021 - 19.04.2021. The survey was commissioned by RTV Ora.
2000 participants
19.04.2021 - 19.04.2021
Noto Sondaggi
RTV Ora
Development since the last election on 25.04.2021
PS
45.5
-0.5
PD-AN
44.5
+0.5
LSI
5.8
-2.2
PSD
1.0
+0.5
Others
3.2
+1.7

Seats in parliament

140
Majority requires 71 seats
PS
66
47%
LSI
8
6%
PSD
1
1%
PD-AN
65
46%
PS + PD-AN
93.6%
PS + LSI
52.9%
PD-AN + LSI
52.1%
PS
47.1%
PD-AN
46.4%

Rating of parties


Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower than before
Unchanged
Higher than before

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Noto Sondaggi pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.1 percentage points.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.