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Latest Opinion Poll for Albania (Ipsos, April 20, 2021).

April 18, 2021 - April 20, 2021

2000 respondents

Next General Election in Albania: 2029

The next General Election in Albania is expected in 2029.

Albanian Government Majority Currently Uncertain.

Based on the Ipsos projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 50.7% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Ipsos?

According to the latest national poll in Albania by Ipsos, PS leads with 48.1%. They are followed by PD: 43.6%, LSI: 3.6% and PSD: 0.8%. Other parties secure 3.9% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Albania
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, Comparisons, and Data on Political Parties in Albania
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Ipsos Projection?

?

PolitPro Score

Ipsos achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

1.9

Election Accuracy

On average, Ipsos's figures deviate by 1.9 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Ipsos at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

140
Majority requires 71 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Albania is 1%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • PS
    ??%
  • PD
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • PS
    ??%
  • PD
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • PSD
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
PS
Unknown
50.7%
PD + LSI
Unknown
49.3%
PD
Unknown
45.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Ipsos)

According to Ipsos, 3 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Albania's parliament: PS with 71 representatives, PD with 64 representatives and LSI with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Albania

Albania's Parliament, the Kuvendi i Shqipërisë, comprises 140 deputies elected through a system of regional proportional representation. The country is divided into 12 electoral districts, mirroring its administrative regions. Within each district, seats are allocated proportionally to the vote share. A 2020 electoral reform introduced a partially open-list system, allowing voters not only to choose a party but also to influence the ranking of candidates within that list via a preference vote.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Albanian Parliament, parties must clear a nationwide electoral threshold of at least 1% of the valid votes. This relatively low barrier aims to foster political diversity. While the D'Hondt method calculates seat distribution within the 12 regions, smaller parties still require a strong local concentration of votes to secure representation in the Kuvendi, given that mandates are allocated at the regional level.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Albania requires an absolute parliamentary majority, meaning at least 71 of the 140 seats. The President appoints the Prime Minister, typically proposed by the party or coalition commanding this majority. Albanian political practice often sees parties forming stable pre-election coalition blocs to enhance their chances of electoral victory. Should no single party or alliance secure an absolute majority, post-election negotiations for a coalition government become necessary, culminating in a vote of confidence in Parliament.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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