PolitPro

Albania MRB: Election Poll for Albania's Parliamentary Election from May 4, 2025

Strongest Force
PS
16.3 points ahead of Aleanca Shqiptare
Government Majority
On the Brink
69 of 140 seats in the Election Trend
Election year
2029
estimated

Albania Parliamentary Election: Voting Intention Poll

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. MRB: single poll for Albania's Parliamentary election; fieldwork concluded May 4, 2025.

Changes since the last election on April 25, 2021

PS
48.2
-0.5
31.9
+31.9
SB
7.9
+7.9
PM
7.5
+7.5
LB
2.0
+2.0
PSD
1.8
-0.5
Other
0.7
Institute
MRB
Survey Period
April 24, 2025 – May 4, 2025
Respondents
1,600
Majority for Albania's government hangs in the balance.

Based on this poll, the parties currently in government would win 49.3% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading according to the poll by MRB?

A recent voting intention poll for Albania by MRB shows PS leading with 48.2%, followed by Aleanca Shqiptare with 31.9%, Shqipëria Bëhet with 7.9%, PM with 7.5%, LB with 2% and PSD with 1.8%. Other parties achieve 0.7% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

Seat projection based on this poll

MRB: how reliable is the projection?

83 PolitPro Score Rank 1 of 3 in Albania
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 68.3
Avg. deviation in elections
0.2 pp

1 election comparisons

Recorded polls
11

Last on May 4, 2025

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
71
0 140
Majority 71

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. PS
    31%
  2. ASHM
    <1%
  3. SB
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. PS
    100%
  2. ASHM
    <1%
  3. SB
    0%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. LB
    84%
  2. PSD
    80%

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

MRB: Projected composition of parliament

Based on this poll, 6 parties would clear the electoral threshold and enter Albania's Parliament: PS with 69 seats, Aleanca Shqiptare with 46 seats, Shqipëria Bëhet with 11 seats, PM with 10 seats, LB with 2 seats and PSD with 2 seats.

Albania's Electoral System Explained

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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