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Latest Opinion Poll for Albania (Noto Sondaggi, April 22, 2025).

April 15, 2025 - April 22, 2025

2000 respondents

Next General Election in Albania: 2029

The next General Election in Albania is expected in 2029.

Albania's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority.

Based on the Noto Sondaggi projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 47.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Noto Sondaggi?

According to the latest national poll in Albania by Noto Sondaggi, PS leads with 45.5%. They are followed by Aleanca Shqiptare: 36%, PM: 6.5%, Shqipëria Bëhet: 5.5%, LB: 2%, PSD: 2%, Demokratët Euroatlantikë: 1% and Djathtas për Zhvillim: 0.5%. Other parties secure 1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Albania
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, Comparisons, and Data on Political Parties in Albania
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Noto Sondaggi Projection?

53

PolitPro Score

Noto Sondaggi achieved a PolitPro Score of 53 out of 100.

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Noto Sondaggi's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Noto Sondaggi at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Albania is 1%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • PS
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  • PM
    ??%
  • LB
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • PS
    ??%
  • PM
    ??%
  • LB
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • PM
    ??%
  • LB
    ??%
  • PSD
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
PS + PM
Unknown
53.6%
PS + PSD + LB
Unknown
50.0%
PS + PSD
Unknown
48.6%
PS + LB
Unknown
48.6%
PS
Unknown
47.1%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Noto Sondaggi)

According to Noto Sondaggi, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Albania's parliament: PS with 66 representatives, Aleanca Shqiptare with 52 representatives, PM with 9 representatives, Shqipëria Bëhet with 8 representatives, LB with 2 representatives, PSD with 2 representatives and Demokratët Euroatlantikë with 1 representatives.

The Electoral System in Albania

Albania's Parliament, the Kuvendi i Shqipërisë, comprises 140 deputies elected through a system of regional proportional representation. The country is divided into 12 electoral districts, mirroring its administrative regions. Within each district, seats are allocated proportionally to the vote share. A 2020 electoral reform introduced a partially open-list system, allowing voters not only to choose a party but also to influence the ranking of candidates within that list via a preference vote.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Albanian Parliament, parties must clear a nationwide electoral threshold of at least 1% of the valid votes. This relatively low barrier aims to foster political diversity. While the D'Hondt method calculates seat distribution within the 12 regions, smaller parties still require a strong local concentration of votes to secure representation in the Kuvendi, given that mandates are allocated at the regional level.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Albania requires an absolute parliamentary majority, meaning at least 71 of the 140 seats. The President appoints the Prime Minister, typically proposed by the party or coalition commanding this majority. Albanian political practice often sees parties forming stable pre-election coalition blocs to enhance their chances of electoral victory. Should no single party or alliance secure an absolute majority, post-election negotiations for a coalition government become necessary, culminating in a vote of confidence in Parliament.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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