PolitPro

Andorra ARI: election poll for the Parliamentary election in Andorra from 22 March 2023

Strongest Force
18.5 points ahead of PS-SDP
Election year
2027
estimated

Voting intention poll for the Parliamentary election in Andorra

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. ARI: single poll for the Parliamentary election in Andorra, fieldwork ended 8 March 2023.

Changes since the last election on 7 April 2019

41.9
+41.9
23.4
+23.4
AE
14.9
+14.9
11.3
+11.3
Lib
6.0
+6.0
2.4
+2.4
Other
0.1
Institute
ARI
Client
N/A
Survey Period
21/02/2023 – 08/03/2023
Respondents
810

Who is leading according to the poll by ARI?

A recent voting intention poll for Andorra by ARI shows DA-CC leading with 41.9%, followed by PS-SDP with 23.4%, Andorra Endavant with 14.9%, Concòrdia with 11.3%, Liberals with 6% and Acció with 2.4%. Other parties achieve 0.1% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

ARI: how reliable is the projection?

? PolitPro Score

No score calculated yet

Avg. deviation in elections
–

No election comparison yet

Recorded polls
0

Last on 22 March 2023

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

No significant deviations from the Election Trend

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
15
0 28
Majority 15

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. DA-CC
    <1%
  2. PS-SDP
    0%
  3. AE
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. DA-CC
    100%
  2. PS-SDP
    <1%
  3. AE
    <1%

Probability of Entering Parliament

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Andorra's Electoral System

Andorra's electoral system is a dual or parallel voting system. Of the 28 seats in the General Council (Consell General), 14 are allocated through proportional representation in a national constituency. The remaining 14 seats are determined by majority vote in the seven parishes (Parròquies), with each parish electing two representatives. This combination ensures that both the densely populated urban centers and the traditional rural regions of the Principality are adequately represented in Parliament.

Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

Andorra applies an electoral threshold for the distribution of seats at the national level. Parties must secure a certain percentage of votes to be considered for the proportional allocation of the 14 national mandates. For local mandates in the Parròquies, however, the majority principle applies: the list with the most votes in a parish receives both available seats. This regulation ensures that local majorities carry significant weight in the final composition of Parliament.

Government formation and coalition traditions

Government formation in Andorra takes place within the General Council. Members of Parliament elect the Head of Government (Cap de Govern), who then forms their cabinet. As the electoral system often favors clear majorities in the parishes, a single-party government is possible. However, in close election outcomes, coalitions or parliamentary pacts are formed between various political groups to secure a stable majority for the election of the Head of Government.

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