Armenia Election Poll: Results from MPG on March 31, 2026

According to MPG data, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Armenia's parliament: Kaghakatsiakan Paymanagir with 48 representatives, Samvel Karapetyan with 26 representatives, Hayastan dashink with 14 representatives and Bargavatch Hayastan with 13 representatives.

The National Assembly of Armenia (Azgayin Zhoghov) comprises at least 101 deputies, elected for a five-year term. Following the 2015 constitutional reform, Armenia operates as a parliamentary republic. Its electoral system employs proportional representation with closed lists within a single nationwide constituency. A distinctive feature is the 'stable majority clause': if no single party or coalition secures an absolute majority in the first round, the system triggers mechanisms (such as bonus seats or a run-off election) to ensure the strongest force commands over 54% of mandates, thereby guaranteeing stable governance.

Entry into the Armenian National Assembly is governed by varying electoral thresholds. Individual parties must secure a nationwide threshold of 5%, while electoral blocs (alliances) face a higher 7% hurdle (potentially higher for blocs with more than three parties). Despite these barriers, the constitution guarantees representation for at least three political forces in parliament. If only two parties surpass the threshold, the third strongest force gains parliamentary entry regardless of its percentage, ensuring a robust parliamentary opposition.

Government formation in Armenia is intricately linked to election outcomes. The parliamentary majority nominates the Prime Minister, who is then appointed by the President. As the system mandates a 'stable majority,' this often leads to the formation of a dominant governing party or a solid bloc. Should no coalition capable of forming a stable majority emerge within six days of election results, a run-off election ensues between the two strongest forces. The winner of this run-off secures additional mandates to achieve the constitutionally required 54% governing majority.