Current election polls and polling data from IFDD

Latest voting intention survey by IFDD for the National Council election

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Austria conducted by IFDD, the parties received the following results: FPÖ 37%, ÖVP 21%, SPÖ 19%, NEOS 11%, GRÜNE 8% and KPÖ 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1250 people during the period 04.01.2025 - 04.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by Kronen Zeitung.
1250 participants
03.01.2025 - 04.01.2025
IFDD
Kronen Zeitung
FPÖ
37.0
±0.0
ÖVP
21.0
±0.0
SPÖ
19.0
-1.0
NEOS
11.0
+1.0
GRÜNE
8.0
±0.0
KPÖ
3.0
±0.0
Others
1.0
±0.0

Seats in parliament

183
Majority requires 92 seats
SPÖ
36
19.7%
GRÜNE
15
8.2%
NEOS
21
11.5%
ÖVP
40
21.9%
FPÖ
71
38.8%
FPÖ + ÖVP
60.7%
FPÖ + SPÖ
58.5%
ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOS
53.0%
ÖVP + SPÖ + GRÜNE
49.7%

Latest voting intention surveys by IFDD for the federal states

Rating of parties


Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
FPÖ
23
68
9
GRÜNE
13
82
5
KPÖ
Not enough data available
NEOS
13
86
2
SPÖ
4
75
21
ÖVP
18
59
23

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in IFDD pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.0 percentage points.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.