Latest voting intention survey by Institut für Grundlagenforschung for the National Council election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Austria conducted by Institut für Grundlagenforschung, the parties received the following results: ÖVP 32%, FPÖ 26%, SPÖ 19%, GRÜNE 11%, NEOS 8% and JETZT 3.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 710 people during the period 18.09.2019 - 18.09.2019.
710 participants
01.09.2019 - 18.09.2019
Institut für Grundlagenforschung
Seats in parliament
183
Majority requires 92 seats
SPÖ
36
19.7%
GRÜNE
21
11.5%
NEOS
15
8.2%
ÖVP
61
33.3%
FPÖ
50
27.3%
ÖVP + FPÖ
ÖVP + SPÖ
ÖVP + GRÜNE + NEOS
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Institut für Grundlagenforschung pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.7 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
3.68
|
Parliamentary Election in Österreich 2019 | 6/6 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.