Latest voting intention survey by Peter Hajek for the National Council election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Austria conducted by Peter Hajek, the parties received the following results: FPÖ 31%, ÖVP 21%, SPÖ 20%, Bierpartei 8%, GRÜNE 8%, NEOS 8% and KPÖ 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1200 people during the period 16.05.2024 - 16.05.2024. The survey was commissioned by ATV.
1200 participants
08.05.2024 - 16.05.2024
Peter Hajek
ATV
Seats in parliament
183
Majority requires 92 seats
SPÖ
38
20.8%
GRÜNE
15
8.2%
BIER
15
8.2%
NEOS
15
8.2%
ÖVP
40
21.9%
FPÖ
60
32.8%
FPÖ + ÖVP
FPÖ + SPÖ
ÖVP + SPÖ + GRÜNE
ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOS
ÖVP + SPÖ + Bierpartei
FPÖ + NEOS + Bierpartei
Latest voting intention surveys by Peter Hajek for the federal states
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Peter Hajek pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.8 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.82
|
Parliamentary Election in Österreich 2019 | 1/6 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.