Latest polls from Research Affairs
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Research Affairs pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.9 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, Research Affairs's average ranking is 4.7.
0x the most accurate prediction
2
1x the second best prediction
3
0x the third best prediction
4
1x on rank 4
5
0x on rank 5
6
0x on rank 6
7
0x on rank 7
8
1x on rank 8
Rating of parties
No abnormalities
Compared to the general election trend of all institutes, there are no significant anomalies regarding individual parties.
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.