Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Austria (IFDD, January 5, 2026)

January 2, 2026 - January 5, 2026

1509 respondents

Next General election in Austria: 2029

The next General election in Austria is expected in 2029.

Austria's Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the IFDD projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 48.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IFDD?

In the latest opinion poll for the Austrian election, conducted by IFDD on January 5, 2026, FPÖ leads with 36%. Trailing behind are ÖVP: 20%, SPÖ: 18%, GRÜNE: 11%, NEOS: 9% and KPÖ: 4%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trends: Austria
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, Comparisons, and Data on Austrian Political Parties

Quality Check: How Reliable is the IFDD Projection?

86

PolitPro Score

IFDD achieved a PolitPro Score of 86 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, IFDD's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IFDD at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

183
Majority requires 92 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Austria is 4%.

ÖVP + FPÖ + NEOS
Right
55.7%
ÖVP + SPÖ
Centre-Right
54.1%
ÖVP + GRÜNE + NEOS
Centre
52.5%
SPÖ + GRÜNE + NEOS
Centre-Left
50.8%
ÖVP + FPÖ + MFG
Right
49.2%
ÖVP + FPÖ
Right
45.4%
SPÖ + FPÖ
Centre-Right
43.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Peter Hajek)

According to Peter Hajek data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Austrian parliament: ÖVP with 51 representatives, SPÖ with 48 representatives, FPÖ with 32 representatives, GRÜNE with 26 representatives, NEOS with 19 representatives and MFG with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Austria

Elections to the Austrian National Council operate under a system of proportional representation. The country is divided into nine state constituencies and 39 regional constituencies. The 183 seats are allocated through a three-stage process: initially at the regional constituency level, then at the state level, and finally at the federal level via national party lists. A unique feature in Austria is the active right to vote from the age of 16. Furthermore, voters can influence the ranking of candidates on party lists through preferential votes, adding an element of personalized choice to the system.

Electoral Thresholds

For a party to enter the National Council, it must secure at least 4% of the valid votes nationwide. Alternatively, winning a 'basic mandate' (a direct seat) in one of the regional constituencies is sufficient to participate in the further distribution of seats. This threshold aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation and ensure that only parties with significant societal relevance are represented. Votes cast for parties that fail to clear these hurdles are not considered in the allocation of mandates.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Austria, the system of proportional representation typically means no single party secures an absolute majority of seats, making coalitions the norm. Following an election, the Federal President usually tasks the leader of the party with the most votes to seek coalition partners. Once a stable majority emerges in the National Council, a coalition agreement is negotiated. While the federal government is not actively elected by parliament, it depends on its confidence, as the National Council can withdraw confidence from the government or individual members at any time.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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