Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Austria (Institut für Grundlagenforschung, September 18, 2019)

September 1, 2019 - September 18, 2019

710 respondents

Next Austria's General Election: 2029

The next Austria's General Election is expected in 2029.

Austria's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Institut für Grundlagenforschung projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 61.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut für Grundlagenforschung?

In the latest opinion poll for the Austrian election, conducted by Institut für Grundlagenforschung on September 18, 2019, ÖVP leads with 32%. Trailing behind are FPÖ: 26%, SPÖ: 19%, GRÜNE: 11%, NEOS: 8% and JETZT: 3.5%. Other parties secure 0.5% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut für Grundlagenforschung Projection?

?

PolitPro Score

Institut für Grundlagenforschung achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

4.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut für Grundlagenforschung's figures deviate by 4.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

183
Majority requires 92 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Austria is 4%.

ÖVP + FPÖ
Right
60.7%
ÖVP + SPÖ
Centre-Right
53.0%
ÖVP + GRÜNE + NEOS
Centre
53.0%
FPÖ + SPÖ
Right
47.0%
ÖVP + GRÜNE
Centre-Right
44.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Institut für Grundlagenforschung)

According to Institut für Grundlagenforschung data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Austrian parliament: ÖVP with 61 representatives, FPÖ with 50 representatives, SPÖ with 36 representatives, GRÜNE with 21 representatives and NEOS with 15 representatives.

The Electoral System in Austria

Elections to the Austrian National Council operate under a system of proportional representation. The country is divided into nine state constituencies and 39 regional constituencies. The 183 seats are allocated through a three-stage process: initially at the regional constituency level, then at the state level, and finally at the federal level via national party lists. A unique feature in Austria is the active right to vote from the age of 16. Furthermore, voters can influence the ranking of candidates on party lists through preferential votes, adding an element of personalized choice to the system.

Electoral Thresholds

For a party to enter the National Council, it must secure at least 4% of the valid votes nationwide. Alternatively, winning a 'basic mandate' (a direct seat) in one of the regional constituencies is sufficient to participate in the further distribution of seats. This threshold aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation and ensure that only parties with significant societal relevance are represented. Votes cast for parties that fail to clear these hurdles are not considered in the allocation of mandates.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Austria, the system of proportional representation typically means no single party secures an absolute majority of seats, making coalitions the norm. Following an election, the Federal President usually tasks the leader of the party with the most votes to seek coalition partners. Once a stable majority emerges in the National Council, a coalition agreement is negotiated. While the federal government is not actively elected by parliament, it depends on its confidence, as the National Council can withdraw confidence from the government or individual members at any time.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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