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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Austria (Peter Hajek, June 22, 2023)

June 19, 2023 - June 22, 2023

800 respondents

Next Austria's General Election: 2029

The next Austria's General Election is expected in 2029.

Austria's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Peter Hajek projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 56.3% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Peter Hajek?

According to the latest national poll in Austria by Peter Hajek, FPÖ leads with 30%. Trailing them are ÖVP: 24%, SPÖ: 22%, GRÜNE: 9%, NEOS: 9% and KPÖ: 4%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trends: Austria
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, Comparisons, and Data on Austrian Political Parties
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Peter Hajek Projection?

71

PolitPro Score

Peter Hajek achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.

2.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Peter Hajek's figures deviate by 2.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Peter Hajek at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Austria is 4%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • ÖVP
    ??%
  • SPÖ
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • ÖVP
    ??%
  • SPÖ
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • NEOS
    ??%
  • KPÖ
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOS
Centre
56.3%
ÖVP + SPÖ + GRÜNE
Centre
56.3%
FPÖ + ÖVP
Right
55.2%
FPÖ + SPÖ
Right
53.0%
ÖVP + SPÖ + KPÖ
Centre-Right
50.8%
ÖVP + SPÖ
Centre-Right
47.0%
SPÖ + NEOS + GRÜNE + KPÖ
Centre-Left
44.8%
ÖVP + NEOS + GRÜNE
Centre
43.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Peter Hajek)

According to Peter Hajek data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Austrian parliament: FPÖ with 56 representatives, ÖVP with 45 representatives, SPÖ with 41 representatives, GRÜNE with 17 representatives, NEOS with 17 representatives and KPÖ with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Austria

Elections to the Austrian National Council operate under a system of proportional representation. The country is divided into nine state constituencies and 39 regional constituencies. The 183 seats are allocated through a three-stage process: initially at the regional constituency level, then at the state level, and finally at the federal level via national party lists. A unique feature in Austria is the active right to vote from the age of 16. Furthermore, voters can influence the ranking of candidates on party lists through preferential votes, adding an element of personalized choice to the system.

Electoral Thresholds

For a party to enter the National Council, it must secure at least 4% of the valid votes nationwide. Alternatively, winning a 'basic mandate' (a direct seat) in one of the regional constituencies is sufficient to participate in the further distribution of seats. This threshold aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation and ensure that only parties with significant societal relevance are represented. Votes cast for parties that fail to clear these hurdles are not considered in the allocation of mandates.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Austria, the system of proportional representation typically means no single party secures an absolute majority of seats, making coalitions the norm. Following an election, the Federal President usually tasks the leader of the party with the most votes to seek coalition partners. Once a stable majority emerges in the National Council, a coalition agreement is negotiated. While the federal government is not actively elected by parliament, it depends on its confidence, as the National Council can withdraw confidence from the government or individual members at any time.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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