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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Austria (Unique Research, December 4, 2024)

December 2, 2024 - December 4, 2024

800 respondents

Next Austria's General Election: 2029

The next Austria's General Election is expected in 2029.

Austria's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Unique Research projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 55.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Unique Research?

According to the latest national poll in Austria by Unique Research, FPÖ leads with 35%. Trailing them are SPÖ: 21%, ÖVP: 20%, NEOS: 12%, GRÜNE: 8% and KPÖ: 2%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trends: Austria
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, Comparisons, and Data on Austrian Political Parties
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Unique Research Projection?

85

PolitPro Score

Unique Research achieved a PolitPro Score of 85 out of 100.

1.2

Election Accuracy

On average, Unique Research's figures deviate by 1.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Unique Research at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Austria is 4%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • SPÖ
    ??%
  • ÖVP
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • SPÖ
    ??%
  • ÖVP
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • NEOS
    ??%
  • KPÖ
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
FPÖ + SPÖ
Right
58.5%
FPÖ + ÖVP
Right
57.4%
SPÖ + ÖVP + NEOS
Centre
55.2%
SPÖ + ÖVP + GRÜNE
Centre
50.8%
SPÖ + ÖVP
Centre-Right
42.6%
SPÖ + NEOS + GRÜNE
Centre-Left
42.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Unique Research)

According to Unique Research data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Austrian parliament: FPÖ with 67 representatives, SPÖ with 40 representatives, ÖVP with 38 representatives, NEOS with 23 representatives and GRÜNE with 15 representatives.

The Electoral System in Austria

Elections to the Austrian National Council operate under a system of proportional representation. The country is divided into nine state constituencies and 39 regional constituencies. The 183 seats are allocated through a three-stage process: initially at the regional constituency level, then at the state level, and finally at the federal level via national party lists. A unique feature in Austria is the active right to vote from the age of 16. Furthermore, voters can influence the ranking of candidates on party lists through preferential votes, adding an element of personalized choice to the system.

Electoral Thresholds

For a party to enter the National Council, it must secure at least 4% of the valid votes nationwide. Alternatively, winning a 'basic mandate' (a direct seat) in one of the regional constituencies is sufficient to participate in the further distribution of seats. This threshold aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation and ensure that only parties with significant societal relevance are represented. Votes cast for parties that fail to clear these hurdles are not considered in the allocation of mandates.

Government Formation and Traditions

In Austria, the system of proportional representation typically means no single party secures an absolute majority of seats, making coalitions the norm. Following an election, the Federal President usually tasks the leader of the party with the most votes to seek coalition partners. Once a stable majority emerges in the National Council, a coalition agreement is negotiated. While the federal government is not actively elected by parliament, it depends on its confidence, as the National Council can withdraw confidence from the government or individual members at any time.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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