PolitPro

Austria OGM: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

OGM: current voting intention polls in Austria

Last Poll May 20, 2026

View poll
Polling period: April 27, 2026 – May 20, 2026 Respondents: 3,017

Change from poll on November 27, 2025

37.0
+1.0
20.0
±0.0
16.0
-1.0
13.0
+1.0
8.0
-1.0
4.0
±0.0
Other
2.0
±0.0

Previous polls by OGM

Poll on Respondents FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ GRÜNE NEOS KPÖ Other View poll
November 27, 2025 1,014 36.0 20.0 17.0 12.0 9.0 4.0 2.0
September 11, 2025 1,027 33.0 23.0 19.0 11.0 10.0 3.0 1.0
May 26, 2025 1,011 32.0 22.0 21.0 9.0 12.0 4.0
April 9, 2025 1,042 32.0 23.0 21.0 9.0 11.0 2.0 2.0

OGM at a glance

83 PolitPro Score Rank 4 of 10 in Austria
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 78.5
Avg. deviation in elections
1.7 pp

8 election comparisons

Recorded polls
55

Last on May 20, 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

OGM: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
KPÖ
No significant deviation
0 % 18 %
At trend level
82 %
Polls
17
ÖVP
Often rated higher
9 % 27 %
At trend level
64 %
Polls
55
GRÜNE
No significant deviation
7 % 15 %
At trend level
78 %
Polls
55
FPÖ
No significant deviation
13 % 9 %
At trend level
78 %
Polls
55
NEOS
No significant deviation
11 % 6 %
At trend level
83 %
Polls
54
SPÖ
No significant deviation
18 % 7 %
At trend level
75 %
Polls
55

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

OGM: How accurate were its past election polls?

Accuracy in Elections 1.3 Percentage points deviation Solid Results Individual Parties: 0.4 to 2.5 percentage points
Last Election Parliamentary election in Vienna 2025 Rank 4 of 4 institutes
Very Accurate Very Inaccurate
National Council election 2024: 1.2, Parliamentary election in Vienna 2015: 1.3, Parliamentary election in Vienna 2025: 1.3, Parliamentary election in Vienna 2020: 1.5, Parliamentary election in Carinthia 2018: 1.7, Parliamentary election in Lower Austria 2023: 1.8, National Council election 2019: 2.0, Parliamentary election in Lower Austria 2018: 2.5
0 Very Reliable

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll was only slightly off the result.

6 Solid Results

In 6 elections, the pre-election poll deviated moderately from the result on average.

2 Significant Deviations

In 2 elections, pre-election polls and results differed significantly.

0 Very Large Deviations

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll significantly missed the result.

8 elections compared with OGM · Select point for details, tap category to highlight.

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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