Latest Election Polls by Peter Hajek

About Peter Hajek

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by Peter Hajek

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
FPÖ
Right-wing Populist
11
67
22
GRÜNE
Centre-Left
11
74
15
KPÖ
Left-wing
0
88
13
NEOS
Liberal
15
76
9
ÖVP
Christian Democratic
11
67
22
SPÖ
Social Democratic
28
63
9

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of Peter Hajek

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, Peter Hajek's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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