Latest Opinion Poll for the Baden-Württemberg State Election (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, February 26, 2026)

February 23, 2026 - February 26, 2026

1049 respondents

Next General election in Baden-Württemberg: 2031

The next General election in Baden-Württemberg is expected in 2031.

Baden-Württemberg's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 55.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen?

In the latest opinion poll for the Baden-Württemberg state election, conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on February 26, 2026, CDU leads with 27%. Trailing behind are Grüne: 25%, AfD: 19%, SPD: 9%, FDP: 6% and Die Linke: 6%. Other parties secure 8% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

120
Majority requires 61 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Baden-Württemberg State Election is 5%.

CDU + Grüne
Centre-Left
55.8%
CDU + AfD
Right
50.0%
CDU + SPD + FDP
Centre
45.8%
Grüne + SPD + FDP
Left
43.3%
Grüne + SPD + Die Linke
Left
43.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen)

According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Baden-Württemberg state parliament: CDU with 35 representatives, Grüne with 32 representatives, AfD with 25 representatives, SPD with 12 representatives, FDP with 8 representatives and Die Linke with 8 representatives.

The Electoral System in Baden-Württemberg

Since the 2022 electoral reform, Baden-Württemberg employs a personalized proportional representation system featuring two votes. Gone are the days of the single-vote model: voters now cast separate ballots for their constituency representative (first vote) and the strength of the state list (second vote). This new system aims to boost women's representation and diversity within the Landtag through closed state lists, while maintaining a minimum of 120 seats overall.

Electoral Thresholds

In Baden-Württemberg, the classic five-percent threshold dictates entry into the Landtag. Given the state's political landscape, dominated by strong Green and conservative poles, this hurdle often proves an existential challenge for smaller parties like the FDP or The Left. Unlike at the federal level, no basic mandate clause exists here; entry is strictly tied to the share of second votes.

Government Formation and Traditions

Baden-Württemberg pioneered Germany's first Green-conservative coalition, led by the Greens. This constellation long served as a pragmatic model for the future. Ahead of the 2026 election, where Minister-President Kretschmann will not seek re-election, new alliances like conservative-social democrat or even three-party coalitions involving the FDP are emerging as focal points to forge stable majorities beyond the strengthening fringes.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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