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Latest Opinion Poll for the Baden-Württemberg State Election (INSA, March 3, 2026)

February 24, 2026 - March 3, 2026

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Baden-Württemberg: 2031

The next General Election in Baden-Württemberg is expected in 2031.

Baden-Württemberg's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 55.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

The latest national poll in Baden-Württemberg, conducted by INSA, reveals CDU leading with 27%, with Grüne: 24%, AfD: 20%, SPD: 9%, FDP: 6% and Die Linke: 6% trailing. Other parties secure 8% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Baden-Württemberg
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Baden-Württemberg State Election is 5%.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA's data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Baden-Württemberg state parliament: CDU with 35 representatives, Grüne with 31 representatives, AfD with 26 representatives, SPD with 12 representatives, FDP with 8 representatives and Die Linke with 8 representatives.

The Electoral System in Baden-Württemberg

Since the 2022 electoral reform, Baden-Württemberg employs a personalized proportional representation system featuring two votes. Gone are the days of the single-vote model: voters now cast separate ballots for their constituency representative (first vote) and the strength of the state list (second vote). This new system aims to boost women's representation and diversity within the Landtag through closed state lists, while maintaining a minimum of 120 seats overall.

Electoral Thresholds

In Baden-Württemberg, the classic five-percent threshold dictates entry into the Landtag. Given the state's political landscape, dominated by strong Green and conservative poles, this hurdle often proves an existential challenge for smaller parties like the FDP or The Left. Unlike at the federal level, no basic mandate clause exists here; entry is strictly tied to the share of second votes.

Government Formation and Traditions

Baden-Württemberg pioneered Germany's first Green-conservative coalition, led by the Greens. This constellation long served as a pragmatic model for the future. Ahead of the 2026 election, where Minister-President Kretschmann will not seek re-election, new alliances like conservative-social democrat or even three-party coalitions involving the FDP are emerging as focal points to forge stable majorities beyond the strengthening fringes.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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