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Latest Opinion Poll for the Baden-Württemberg State Election (Institut Wahlkreisprognose, December 22, 2022)

December 18, 2022 - December 22, 2022

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Baden-Württemberg: 2031

The next General Election in Baden-Württemberg is expected in 2031.

Baden-Württemberg's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Institut Wahlkreisprognose projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 56.7% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut Wahlkreisprognose?

The latest national poll in Baden-Württemberg, conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose, reveals Grüne leading with 28%, with CDU: 23%, AfD: 15%, SPD: 15%, FDP: 9%, Freie Wähler: 2.5% and Die Linke: 2% trailing. Other parties secure 5.5% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut Wahlkreisprognose Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Institut Wahlkreisprognose at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Baden-Württemberg State Election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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  • CDU
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • CDU
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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  • FDP
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Institut Wahlkreisprognose)

According to Institut Wahlkreisprognose's data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Baden-Württemberg state parliament: Grüne with 37 representatives, CDU with 31 representatives, AfD with 20 representatives, SPD with 20 representatives and FDP with 12 representatives.

The Electoral System in Baden-Württemberg

Since the 2022 electoral reform, Baden-Württemberg employs a personalized proportional representation system featuring two votes. Gone are the days of the single-vote model: voters now cast separate ballots for their constituency representative (first vote) and the strength of the state list (second vote). This new system aims to boost women's representation and diversity within the Landtag through closed state lists, while maintaining a minimum of 120 seats overall.

Electoral Thresholds

In Baden-Württemberg, the classic five-percent threshold dictates entry into the Landtag. Given the state's political landscape, dominated by strong Green and conservative poles, this hurdle often proves an existential challenge for smaller parties like the FDP or The Left. Unlike at the federal level, no basic mandate clause exists here; entry is strictly tied to the share of second votes.

Government Formation and Traditions

Baden-Württemberg pioneered Germany's first Green-conservative coalition, led by the Greens. This constellation long served as a pragmatic model for the future. Ahead of the 2026 election, where Minister-President Kretschmann will not seek re-election, new alliances like conservative-social democrat or even three-party coalitions involving the FDP are emerging as focal points to forge stable majorities beyond the strengthening fringes.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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