Baden-Württemberg: Poll by INSA from 12.08.2024

Polling data

CDU
31.0
+1.0
Grüne
19.0
±0.0
AfD
16.0
+1.0
SPD
11.0
-1.0
BSW
8.0
+1.0
FDP
7.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
-2.0
Development since the last election on 14.03.2021
CDU
+6.9
Grüne
-13.6
AfD
+6.3
SPD
±0.0
BSW
New
FDP
-3.5
Linke
-0.6
INSA – 1000 respondents – 05.08.2024-12.08.2024

Next election: 2026

The next parliamentary election in Baden-Württemberg is expected to take place in 2026.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 40% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 36% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Baden-Württemberg - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Baden-Württemberg from INSA shows the following results: CDU 31%, Grüne 19%, AfD 16%, SPD 11%, BSW 8%, FDP 7% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Baden-Württemberg this Sunday, CDU might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.9 growth since the last election. Grüne, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-13.6) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Winfried Kretschmann is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and CDU. With 55.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (05.08.2024 - 12.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

120
Majority requires 61 seats
SPD
14
11.7%
Grüne
25
20.8%
BSW
10
8.3%
FDP
9
7.5%
CDU
41
34.2%
AfD
21
17.5%
CDU + Grüne
55.0%
CDU + SPD + BSW
54.2%
CDU + SPD + FDP
53.3%
CDU + AfD
51.7%
CDU + BSW + FDP
50.0%
CDU + SPD
45.8%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Baden-Württemberg was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 05.08.2024 and 12.08.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 31%, Grüne 19%, AfD 16%, SPD 11%, BSW 8%, FDP 7% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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