Latest Opinion Poll for the Bavarian Election (Civey, February 16, 2023)

February 2, 2023 - February 16, 2023

5503 respondents

Next General Election for Bavaria's Landtag: 2028

The next General Election for Bavaria's Landtag is expected in 2028.

Bavarian Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Civey projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 58.3% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Civey?

In the latest opinion poll for the Bavarian election, conducted by Civey on February 16, 2023, CSU leads with 39%. Trailing are Grüne: 18%, Freie Wähler: 12%, AfD: 10%, SPD: 9%, FDP: 4% and Die Linke: 2%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Civey Projection?

83

PolitPro Score

Civey achieved a PolitPro Score of 83 out of 100.

1.7

Election Accuracy

On average, Civey's figures deviate by 1.7 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Civey at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

180
Majority requires 91 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Bavarian election is 5%.

CSU + Grüne
Centre-Right
65.6%
CSU + Freie Wähler
Right
58.3%
CSU + AfD
Right
56.1%
CSU + SPD
Centre-Right
55.0%
CSU
Right
45.0%
Grüne + Freie Wähler + SPD
Centre-Left
43.9%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Civey)

According to Civey, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Bavarian parliament: CSU with 81 representatives, Grüne with 37 representatives, Freie Wähler with 24 representatives, AfD with 20 representatives and SPD with 18 representatives.

The Electoral System in Bavaria

Bavaria operates under an 'enhanced proportional representation' electoral system. A key feature is the aggregation of both first and second votes to determine seat allocation (total votes). Furthermore, voters can specifically select individual candidates from a party list with their second vote, directly influencing the ranking of elected representatives. This system significantly bolsters the personal mandate component over a pure party-list approach.

Electoral Thresholds

In the Free State of Bavaria, the five-percent threshold applies to the total votes cast statewide. Crucially, no basic mandate clause is in place. Historically, this has meant that parties winning direct constituencies can still fail to enter the Landtag if their statewide vote falls below 5% – a significant barrier, particularly for regional parties or smaller political groups.

Government Formation and Traditions

For decades, Bavaria was defined by single-party rule under the CSU. Today, coalitions are the norm, typically involving the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) as a conservative partner. A distinct Bavarian characteristic is the CSU's categorical distancing from both the Greens and the AfD, which severely restricts the scope for coalition-building to the conservative bloc.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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