Latest Opinion Poll for the Bavarian Election (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, September 7, 2023)

September 4, 2023 - September 7, 2023

1254 respondents

Next General election in Bavaria: 2028

The next General election in Bavaria is expected in 2028.

Bavarian Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 58.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen?

In the latest opinion poll for the Bavarian election, conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on September 7, 2023, CSU leads with 36%. Trailing are Freie Wähler: 16%, Grüne: 16%, AfD: 12%, SPD: 9% and FDP: 4%. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen at a Glance
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

180
Majority requires 91 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Bavarian election is 5%.

CSU + AfD
Right
65.6%
CSU + Grüne
Centre-Right
60.0%
CSU + Freie Wähler
Right
56.7%
CSU + SPD
Centre-Right
52.8%
CSU
Right
45.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: GMS)

According to GMS, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Bavarian parliament: CSU with 81 representatives, AfD with 37 representatives, Grüne with 27 representatives, Freie Wähler with 21 representatives and SPD with 14 representatives.

The Electoral System in Bavaria

Bavaria operates under an 'enhanced proportional representation' electoral system. A key feature is the aggregation of both first and second votes to determine seat allocation (total votes). Furthermore, voters can specifically select individual candidates from a party list with their second vote, directly influencing the ranking of elected representatives. This system significantly bolsters the personal mandate component over a pure party-list approach.

Electoral Thresholds

In the Free State of Bavaria, the five-percent threshold applies to the total votes cast statewide. Crucially, no basic mandate clause is in place. Historically, this has meant that parties winning direct constituencies can still fail to enter the Landtag if their statewide vote falls below 5% – a significant barrier, particularly for regional parties or smaller political groups.

Government Formation and Traditions

For decades, Bavaria was defined by single-party rule under the CSU. Today, coalitions are the norm, typically involving the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) as a conservative partner. A distinct Bavarian characteristic is the CSU's categorical distancing from both the Greens and the AfD, which severely restricts the scope for coalition-building to the conservative bloc.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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