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Latest Opinion Poll for the Bavarian Election (INSA, April 27, 2021)

April 22, 2021 - April 27, 2021

1400 respondents

Next General Election for Bavaria's Landtag: 2028

The next General Election for Bavaria's Landtag is expected in 2028.

Bavarian Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 48.3% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

In Bavaria, the latest national poll by INSA shows CSU leading with 36%. They are followed by Grüne: 24%, AfD: 9%, Freie Wähler: 9%, SPD: 9%, FDP: 7% and Die Linke: 3%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Bavaria
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Bavaria
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

83

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 83 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Bavarian election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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  • Grüne
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • Grüne
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SPD
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  • FDP
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  • Linke
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Bavarian parliament: CSU with 70 representatives, Grüne with 46 representatives, AfD with 17 representatives, Freie Wähler with 17 representatives, SPD with 17 representatives and FDP with 13 representatives.

The Electoral System in Bavaria

Bavaria operates under an 'enhanced proportional representation' electoral system. A key feature is the aggregation of both first and second votes to determine seat allocation (total votes). Furthermore, voters can specifically select individual candidates from a party list with their second vote, directly influencing the ranking of elected representatives. This system significantly bolsters the personal mandate component over a pure party-list approach.

Electoral Thresholds

In the Free State of Bavaria, the five-percent threshold applies to the total votes cast statewide. Crucially, no basic mandate clause is in place. Historically, this has meant that parties winning direct constituencies can still fail to enter the Landtag if their statewide vote falls below 5% – a significant barrier, particularly for regional parties or smaller political groups.

Government Formation and Traditions

For decades, Bavaria was defined by single-party rule under the CSU. Today, coalitions are the norm, typically involving the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) as a conservative partner. A distinct Bavarian characteristic is the CSU's categorical distancing from both the Greens and the AfD, which severely restricts the scope for coalition-building to the conservative bloc.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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