Latest Opinion Poll for the Bavarian Election (INSA, October 2, 2023)

September 25, 2023 - October 2, 2023

1000 respondents

Next General election in Bavaria: 2028

The next General election in Bavaria is expected in 2028.

Bavarian Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 57.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

In the latest opinion poll for the Bavarian election, conducted by INSA on October 2, 2023, CSU leads with 36%. Trailing are Freie Wähler: 15%, Grüne: 15%, AfD: 14%, SPD: 9% and FDP: 4%. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

180
Majority requires 91 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Bavarian election is 5%.

CSU + Grüne
Centre-Right
57.8%
CSU + Freie Wähler
Right
57.8%
CSU + AfD
Right
56.7%
CSU + SPD
Centre-Right
51.1%
Grüne + Freie Wähler + SPD
Centre-Left
43.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Bavarian parliament: CSU with 74 representatives, Freie Wähler with 30 representatives, Grüne with 30 representatives, AfD with 28 representatives and SPD with 18 representatives.

The Electoral System in Bavaria

Bavaria operates under an 'enhanced proportional representation' electoral system. A key feature is the aggregation of both first and second votes to determine seat allocation (total votes). Furthermore, voters can specifically select individual candidates from a party list with their second vote, directly influencing the ranking of elected representatives. This system significantly bolsters the personal mandate component over a pure party-list approach.

Electoral Thresholds

In the Free State of Bavaria, the five-percent threshold applies to the total votes cast statewide. Crucially, no basic mandate clause is in place. Historically, this has meant that parties winning direct constituencies can still fail to enter the Landtag if their statewide vote falls below 5% – a significant barrier, particularly for regional parties or smaller political groups.

Government Formation and Traditions

For decades, Bavaria was defined by single-party rule under the CSU. Today, coalitions are the norm, typically involving the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) as a conservative partner. A distinct Bavarian characteristic is the CSU's categorical distancing from both the Greens and the AfD, which severely restricts the scope for coalition-building to the conservative bloc.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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