Bavaria
Election trend
Parties

Bavaria: Poll by GMS from 03.01.2023

Polling data

CSU
41.0
+2.0
Grüne
18.0
±0.0
FW
10.0
±0.0
AfD
10.0
-3.0
SPD
9.0
±0.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
2.0
±0.0
BP
1.0
±0.0
Sonst.
5.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+4.0
Grüne
+3.6
FW
-5.8
AfD
-4.6
SPD
+0.6
FDP
+1.0
Linke
+0.5
BP
+0.1
GMS – 2023 respondents – 28.12.2022-03.01.2023
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from GMS shows the following results: CSU 41%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 18%, Freie Wähler 10%, AfD 10%, SPD 9%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 2% and Bayernpartei 1%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 58.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by GMS. For this purpose, 2023 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (28.12.2022 - 03.01.2023).

Coalition possibilities

180
SPD
18
Grüne
37
CSU
85
FW
20
AfD
20
Majority requires 91 seats
CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
122
CSU + Freie Wähler
105
CSU + AfD
105
CSU + SPD
103
CSU
85

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by GMS. The survey took place between 28.12.2022 and 03.01.2023 among 2023 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 41%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 18%, Freie Wähler 10%, AfD 10%, SPD 9%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 2% and Bayernpartei 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.