Bavaria
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Elections

Bavaria: Poll by Civey from 12.01.2023

Polling data

CSU
42.0
+1.0
Grüne
17.0
±0.0
FW
10.0
±0.0
AfD
9.0
-1.0
SPD
9.0
-1.0
FDP
4.0
+1.0
Linke
3.0
+1.0
Sonst.
6.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+5.0
Grüne
+2.6
FW
-5.8
AfD
-5.6
SPD
+0.6
FDP
+1.0
Linke
+1.5
Civey – 5499 respondents – 29.12.2022-12.01.2023
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from Civey shows the following results: CSU 42%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 17%, Freie Wähler 10%, AfD 9%, SPD 9%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 59.8% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Civey. For this purpose, 5499 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 14 days (29.12.2022 - 12.01.2023).

Coalition possibilities

CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
67.8
CSU + Freie Wähler
59.8
CSU + SPD
58.6
CSU
48.3

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in website.de-by was conducted by Civey. The survey took place between 29.12.2022 and 12.01.2023 among 5499 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 42%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 17%, Freie Wähler 10%, AfD 9%, SPD 9%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.