Bavaria
Election trend
Parties

Bavaria: Poll by Forsa from 16.02.2023

Polling data

CSU
42.0
+1.0
Grüne
16.0
-2.0
FW
10.0
-1.0
SPD
10.0
±0.0
AfD
9.0
+1.0
FDP
3.0
±0.0
Sonst.
10.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+5.0
Grüne
+1.6
FW
-5.8
SPD
+1.6
AfD
-5.6
FDP
±0.0
Forsa – 1022 respondents – 08.02.2023-16.02.2023
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.
Institute often rates AfD lower
In 36% of election polls Forsa rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from Forsa shows the following results: CSU 42%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16%, Freie Wähler 10%, SPD 10%, AfD 9% and FDP 3%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 59.8% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Forsa. For this purpose, 1022 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 8 days (08.02.2023 - 16.02.2023).

Coalition possibilities

180
SPD
20
Grüne
33
CSU
88
FW
21
AfD
18
Majority requires 91 seats
CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
121
CSU + Freie Wähler
109
CSU + SPD
108
CSU + AfD
106
CSU
88

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Forsa. The survey took place between 08.02.2023 and 16.02.2023 among 1022 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 42%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16%, Freie Wähler 10%, SPD 10%, AfD 9% and FDP 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.