Bavaria
Election trend
Parties

Bavaria: Poll by Infratest dimap from 13.05.2023

Polling data

CSU
39.0
+1.0
Grüne
16.0
-2.0
FW
12.0
+2.0
AfD
12.0
-1.0
SPD
11.0
+2.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Sonst.
6.0
-2.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+2.0
Grüne
+1.6
FW
-3.8
AfD
-2.6
SPD
+2.6
FDP
+1.0
Infratest dimap – 1176 respondents – 09.05.2023-13.05.2023
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.
Institute often rates CSU lower
In 39% of election polls Infratest dimap rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from Infratest dimap shows the following results: CSU 39%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16%, Freie Wähler 12%, AfD 12%, SPD 11% and FDP 4%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, SPD might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.6 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 56.6% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Infratest dimap. For this purpose, 1176 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (09.05.2023 - 13.05.2023).

Coalition possibilities

180
SPD
22
Grüne
32
CSU
78
FW
24
AfD
24
Majority requires 91 seats
CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
110
CSU + Freie Wähler
102
CSU + AfD
102
CSU + SPD
100

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Infratest dimap. The survey took place between 09.05.2023 and 13.05.2023 among 1176 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 39%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16%, Freie Wähler 12%, AfD 12%, SPD 11% and FDP 4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.