Bavaria: Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen from 05.10.2023

Polling data

CSU
37.0
+1.0
Grüne
16.0
±0.0
FW
15.0
±0.0
AfD
14.0
±0.0
SPD
9.0
±0.0
FDP
3.0
-1.0
Others
6.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
±0.0
Grüne
+1.6
FW
-0.8
AfD
-0.6
SPD
+0.6
FDP
±0.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen – 1209 respondents – 04.10.2023-05.10.2023

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates Grüne higher

In 38% of election polls, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen rates Grüne higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows the following results: CSU 37%, Grüne 16%, Freie Wähler 15%, AfD 14%, SPD 9% and FDP 3%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, Grüne might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.6 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-0.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 57.2% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. For this purpose, 1209 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (04.10.2023 - 05.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
17
9.9%
Grüne
32
17.6%
CSU
74
40.7%
FW
30
16.5%
AfD
27
15.4%
CSU + Grüne
58.9%
CSU + Freie Wähler
57.8%
CSU + AfD
56.1%
CSU + SPD
50.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The survey took place between 04.10.2023 and 05.10.2023 among 1209 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 37%, Grüne 16%, Freie Wähler 15%, AfD 14%, SPD 9% and FDP 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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