Bavaria
Election trend
Parties
Upcoming elections:
Brandenburg
Germany

Bavaria: Poll by Civey from 17.11.2023

Polling data

CSU
40.0
+3.0
Grüne
14.0
-1.0
FW
13.0
-2.0
AfD
13.0
-1.0
SPD
9.0
±0.0
FDP
3.0
-1.0
Linke
2.0
+1.0
Sonst.
6.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+3.0
Grüne
-0.4
FW
-2.8
AfD
-1.6
SPD
+0.6
FDP
±0.0
Linke
+0.5
Civey – 5001 respondents – 10.11.2023-17.11.2023

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from Civey shows the following results: CSU 40%, Grüne 14%, Freie Wähler 13%, AfD 13%, SPD 9%, FDP 3% and Die Linke 2%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 59.5% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Civey. For this purpose, 5001 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (10.11.2023 - 17.11.2023).

Coalition possibilities

180
SPD
18
Grüne
28
CSU
82
FW
26
AfD
26
Majority requires 91 seats
CSU + Grüne
110
CSU + Freie Wähler
108
CSU + AfD
108
CSU + SPD
100
CSU
82

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Civey. The survey took place between 10.11.2023 and 17.11.2023 among 5001 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 40%, Grüne 14%, Freie Wähler 13%, AfD 13%, SPD 9%, FDP 3% and Die Linke 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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