Bavaria: Poll by GMS from 02.01.2024

Polling data

CSU
41.0
+5.0
FW
16.0
-1.0
AfD
14.0
±0.0
Grüne
13.0
-1.0
SPD
6.0
-3.0
FDP
3.0
±0.0
Linke
1.0
±0.0
BP
1.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+4.0
FW
+0.2
AfD
-0.6
Grüne
-1.4
SPD
-2.4
FDP
±0.0
Linke
-0.5
BP
+0.1
GMS – 1002 respondents – 27.12.2023-02.01.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from GMS shows the following results: CSU 41%, Freie Wähler 16%, AfD 14%, Grüne 13%, SPD 6%, FDP 3%, Die Linke 1% and Bayernpartei 1%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.0 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 63.4% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by GMS. For this purpose, 1002 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (27.12.2023 - 02.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
12
6.7%
Grüne
26
14.4%
CSU
82
45.6%
FW
32
17.8%
AfD
28
15.6%
CSU + Freie Wähler
63.3%
CSU + AfD
61.1%
CSU + Grüne
60.0%
CSU + SPD
52.2%
CSU
45.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by GMS. The survey took place between 27.12.2023 and 02.01.2024 among 1002 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 41%, Freie Wähler 16%, AfD 14%, Grüne 13%, SPD 6%, FDP 3%, Die Linke 1% and Bayernpartei 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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