Bavaria: Poll by Infratest dimap from 15.01.2024

Polling data

CSU
40.0
+4.0
AfD
15.0
+1.0
Grüne
13.0
-2.0
FW
13.0
-3.0
SPD
7.0
-2.0
FDP
3.0
-1.0
Sonst.
9.0
+3.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
Infratest dimap – 1161 respondents – 11.01.2024-15.01.2024
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.
Institute often rates CSU lower
In 39% of election polls Infratest dimap rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from Infratest dimap shows the following results: CSU 40%, AfD 15%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, Freie Wähler 13%, SPD 7% and FDP 3%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 60.3% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Infratest dimap. For this purpose, 1161 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (11.01.2024 - 15.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

180
SPD
14
Grüne
26
CSU
83
FW
26
AfD
31
Majority requires 91 seats
CSU + AfD
114
CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
109
CSU + Freie Wähler
109
CSU + SPD
97
CSU
83

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Infratest dimap. The survey took place between 11.01.2024 and 15.01.2024 among 1161 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 40%, AfD 15%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, Freie Wähler 13%, SPD 7% and FDP 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.