Bavaria: Poll by Forsa from 02.08.2024

Bavaria: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CSU
43.0
+4.0
AfD
13.0
±0.0
FW
12.0
-2.0
Grüne
11.0
-3.0
SPD
8.0
-1.0
BSW
4.0
+4.0
FDP
2.0
-2.0
Others
7.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+6.0
AfD
-1.6
FW
-3.8
Grüne
-3.4
SPD
-0.4
BSW
New
FDP
-1.0
Forsa – 1036 respondents – 22.07.2024-02.08.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 35% of election polls Forsa rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates BSW lower

In 48% of election polls Forsa rates BSW lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from Forsa shows the following results: CSU 43%, AfD 13%, Freie Wähler 12%, Grüne 11%, SPD 8%, BSW 4% and FDP 2%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 63.9% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Forsa. For this purpose, 1036 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 11 days (22.07.2024 - 02.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
16
8.9%
Grüne
22
12.2%
CSU
90
50%
FW
25
13.9%
AfD
27
15%
CSU + AfD
65.0%
CSU + Freie Wähler
63.9%
CSU + Grüne
62.2%
CSU + SPD
58.9%
CSU
50.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Forsa. The survey took place between 22.07.2024 and 02.08.2024 among 1036 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 43%, AfD 13%, Freie Wähler 12%, Grüne 11%, SPD 8%, BSW 4% and FDP 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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