Bavaria: Poll by INSA from 14.10.2024

Bavaria: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CSU
43.0
+7.0
AfD
18.0
+4.0
FW
11.0
-4.0
Grüne
10.0
-5.0
SPD
8.0
-1.0
BSW
5.0
+5.0
Others
5.0
-6.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+6.0
AfD
+3.4
FW
-4.8
Grüne
-4.4
SPD
-0.4
BSW
New
INSA – 1000 respondents – 07.10.2024-14.10.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 36% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 34% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from INSA shows the following results: CSU 43%, AfD 18%, Freie Wähler 11%, Grüne 10%, SPD 8% and BSW 5%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 57.3% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (07.10.2024 - 14.10.2024).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
15
8.3%
Grüne
19
10.6%
BSW
9
5%
CSU
82
45.6%
FW
21
11.7%
AfD
34
18.9%
CSU + AfD
64.4%
CSU + Freie Wähler
57.2%
CSU + Grüne
56.1%
CSU + SPD
53.9%
CSU + BSW
50.6%
CSU
45.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 07.10.2024 and 14.10.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 43%, AfD 18%, Freie Wähler 11%, Grüne 10%, SPD 8% and BSW 5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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