Bavaria: Poll by Civey from 14.11.2024

Polling data

CSU
44.0
+2.0
AfD
12.0
-1.0
FW
11.0
-3.0
Grüne
11.0
-3.0
SPD
8.0
+1.0
BSW
4.0
+4.0
FDP
2.0
±0.0
Linke
1.0
±0.0
Others
7.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+7.0
AfD
-2.6
FW
-4.8
Grüne
-3.4
SPD
-0.4
BSW
New
FDP
-1.0
Linke
-0.5
Civey – 5003 respondents – 18.10.2024-14.11.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from Civey shows the following results: CSU 44%, AfD 12%, Freie Wähler 11%, Grüne 11%, SPD 8%, BSW 4%, FDP 2% and Die Linke 1%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.0 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 64.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Civey. For this purpose, 5003 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 27 days (18.10.2024 - 14.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
16
9.3%
Grüne
23
12.8%
CSU
93
51.2%
FW
23
12.8%
AfD
25
14%
CSU
51.7%
Grüne + Freie Wähler + SPD
34.4%
AfD + Freie Wähler
26.7%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Civey. The survey took place between 18.10.2024 and 14.11.2024 among 5003 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 44%, AfD 12%, Freie Wähler 11%, Grüne 11%, SPD 8%, BSW 4%, FDP 2% and Die Linke 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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