Bavaria: Poll by Civey from 11.04.2025

Bavaria: Polling data

CSU
39.0
-5.0
AfD
18.0
+6.0
Grüne
12.0
+1.0
FW
10.0
-1.0
SPD
8.0
±0.0
BSW
4.0
±0.0
Linke
2.0
+1.0
FDP
2.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
-2.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+2.0
AfD
+3.4
Grüne
-2.4
FW
-5.8
SPD
-0.4
BSW
New
Linke
+0.5
FDP
-1.0
Civey – 5006 respondents – 28.03.2025-11.04.2025

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from Civey shows the following results: CSU 39%, AfD 18%, Grüne 12%, Freie Wähler 10%, SPD 8%, BSW 4%, Die Linke 2% and FDP 2%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.4 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 56.7% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Civey. For this purpose, 5006 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 14 days (28.03.2025 - 11.04.2025).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
16
8.9%
Grüne
25
13.9%
CSU
81
45%
FW
21
11.7%
AfD
37
20.6%
CSU + AfD
65.6%
CSU + Grüne
58.9%
CSU + Freie Wähler
56.7%
CSU + SPD
53.9%
CSU
45.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Civey. The survey took place between 28.03.2025 and 11.04.2025 among 5006 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 39%, AfD 18%, Grüne 12%, Freie Wähler 10%, SPD 8%, BSW 4%, Die Linke 2% and FDP 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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