Bavaria: Poll by Forsa from 09.08.2018

Bavaria: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CSU
37.0
-1.0
Grüne
17.0
+2.0
AfD
13.0
-1.0
SPD
12.0
±0.0
FW
8.0
±0.0
FDP
5.0
-1.0
Linke
4.0
+1.0
Others
4.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
New
Grüne
+2.6
AfD
-1.6
SPD
+3.6
FW
-7.8
FDP
+2.0
Linke
+2.5
Forsa – 1105 respondents – 25.07.2018-09.08.2018

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 35% of election polls Forsa rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from Forsa shows the following results: CSU 37%, Grüne 17%, AfD 13%, SPD 12%, Freie Wähler 8%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 4%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, SPD might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.6 growth since the last election. CSU, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 49.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Forsa. For this purpose, 1105 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 15 days (25.07.2018 - 09.08.2018).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
23
12.8%
Grüne
34
18.9%
FDP
9
5%
CSU
73
40.6%
FW
16
8.9%
AfD
25
13.9%
CSU + Grüne
59.4%
CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP
54.4%
CSU + AfD
54.4%
CSU + SPD
53.3%
CSU + Freie Wähler
49.4%
CSU + FDP
45.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Forsa. The survey took place between 25.07.2018 and 09.08.2018 among 1105 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 37%, Grüne 17%, AfD 13%, SPD 12%, Freie Wähler 8%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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