Bavaria: Poll by GMS from 26.09.2018

Bavaria: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CSU
35.0
-1.0
Grüne
16.0
±0.0
SPD
13.0
+1.0
AfD
12.0
-2.0
FW
10.0
+3.0
FDP
5.0
-1.0
Linke
4.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
-2.0
Grüne
+1.6
SPD
+4.6
AfD
-2.6
FW
-5.8
FDP
+2.0
Linke
+2.5
GMS – 1004 respondents – 20.09.2018-26.09.2018

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from GMS shows the following results: CSU 35%, Grüne 16%, SPD 13%, AfD 12%, Freie Wähler 10%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 4%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, SPD might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.6 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 50.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by GMS. For this purpose, 1004 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (20.09.2018 - 26.09.2018).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
26
14.4%
Grüne
32
17.8%
FDP
9
5%
CSU
70
38.9%
FW
20
11.1%
AfD
23
12.8%
CSU + Grüne
56.7%
CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP
55.0%
CSU + SPD
53.3%
CSU + AfD
51.7%
CSU + Freie Wähler
50.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by GMS. The survey took place between 20.09.2018 and 26.09.2018 among 1004 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 35%, Grüne 16%, SPD 13%, AfD 12%, Freie Wähler 10%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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