Bavaria: Poll by Infratest dimap from 02.10.2018

Polling data

CSU
33.0
-2.0
Grüne
18.0
+1.0
FW
11.0
±0.0
SPD
11.0
±0.0
AfD
10.0
-1.0
FDP
6.0
+1.0
Linke
4.5
-0.5
Others
6.5
+1.5
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
-4.0
Grüne
+3.6
FW
-4.8
SPD
+2.6
AfD
-4.6
FDP
+3.0
Linke
+3.0
Infratest dimap – 1002 respondents – 01.10.2018-02.10.2018

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates CSU lower

In 37% of election polls Infratest dimap rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from Infratest dimap shows the following results: CSU 33%, Grüne 18%, Freie Wähler 11%, SPD 11%, AfD 10%, FDP 6% and Die Linke 4.5%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, Grüne might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.6 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 49.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Infratest dimap. For this purpose, 1002 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (01.10.2018 - 02.10.2018).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
22
12.2%
Grüne
37
20.6%
FDP
12
6.7%
CSU
67
37.2%
FW
22
12.2%
AfD
20
11.1%
CSU + Freie Wähler + SPD
61.7%
CSU + Freie Wähler + AfD
60.6%
CSU + Grüne
57.8%
CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP
56.1%
CSU + SPD + FDP
56.1%
CSU + AfD + FDP
55.0%
Grüne + Freie Wähler + SPD + FDP
51.7%
CSU + Freie Wähler
49.4%
CSU + SPD
49.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Infratest dimap. The survey took place between 01.10.2018 and 02.10.2018 among 1002 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 33%, Grüne 18%, Freie Wähler 11%, SPD 11%, AfD 10%, FDP 6% and Die Linke 4.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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