Bavaria
Election trend
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Elections

Bavaria: Poll by INSA from 08.10.2018

Polling data

CSU
33.0
-1.0
Grüne
18.0
+1.0
AfD
14.0
±0.0
FW
11.0
+1.0
SPD
10.0
-1.0
FDP
5.5
-0.5
Linke
4.5
+0.5
Sonst.
4.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
-4.0
Grüne
+3.6
AfD
-0.6
FW
-4.8
SPD
+1.6
FDP
+2.5
Linke
+3.0
INSA – 1707 respondents – 02.10.2018-08.10.2018
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.
Institute often rates Bündnis 90/Die Grünen lower
In 35% of election polls INSA rates Bündnis 90/Die Grünen lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates CSU lower
In 33% of election polls INSA rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the State election in Bavaria from INSA shows the following results: CSU 33%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 18%, AfD 14%, Freie Wähler 11%, SPD 10%, FDP 5.5% and Die Linke 4.5%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.6 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 48.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 1707 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (02.10.2018 - 08.10.2018).

Coalition possibilities

CSU + Freie Wähler + SPD
59.0
CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
55.8
CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP
54.1
CSU + SPD + FDP
53.0
CSU + Freie Wähler
48.1
CSU + SPD
47.0

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in website.de-by was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 02.10.2018 and 08.10.2018 among 1707 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 33%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 18%, AfD 14%, Freie Wähler 11%, SPD 10%, FDP 5.5% and Die Linke 4.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.