Bavaria: Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen from 11.10.2018

Bavaria: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CSU
34.0
-1.0
Grüne
19.0
+1.0
SPD
12.0
±0.0
FW
10.0
±0.0
AfD
10.0
±0.0
FDP
5.5
±0.0
Linke
4.0
-0.5
Others
5.5
+0.5
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
-3.0
Grüne
+4.6
SPD
+3.6
FW
-5.8
AfD
-4.6
FDP
+2.5
Linke
+2.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen – 1075 respondents – 10.10.2018-11.10.2018

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates Grüne higher

In 37% of election polls, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen rates Grüne higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows the following results: CSU 34%, Grüne 19%, SPD 12%, Freie Wähler 10%, AfD 10%, FDP 5.5% and Die Linke 4%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, Grüne might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.6 growth since the last election. Freie Wähler, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 48.9% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. For this purpose, 1075 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (10.10.2018 - 11.10.2018).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
24
13.3%
Grüne
38
21.1%
FDP
11
6.1%
CSU
68
37.8%
FW
20
11.1%
AfD
19
10.6%
CSU + Freie Wähler + AfD
59.4%
CSU + Grüne
58.9%
CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP
55.0%
CSU + AfD + FDP
54.4%
Grüne + SPD + Freie Wähler + FDP
51.7%
CSU + SPD
51.1%
CSU + Freie Wähler
48.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The survey took place between 10.10.2018 and 11.10.2018 among 1075 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 34%, Grüne 19%, SPD 12%, Freie Wähler 10%, AfD 10%, FDP 5.5% and Die Linke 4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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