Belgium: Poll by Ipsos from 11.12.2023

Belgium: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
23.9
+23.9
MR
20.0
+20.0
ECO
14.0
+14.0
PVDA
14.0
+4.5
LE
13.8
+13.8
DéFI
3.9
+3.9
Others
10.4
-80.1
Development since the last election on 09.06.2024
PS
+15.9
MR
+9.7
ECO
+11.4
PVDA
+4.1
LE
+7.0
DéFI
+2.7
Ipsos – 1000 respondents – 04.12.2023-11.12.2023

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Belgium is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates DéFI lower

In 33% of election polls Ipsos rates DéFI lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Ecolo higher

In 38% of election polls, Ipsos rates Ecolo higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LE higher

In 36% of election polls, Ipsos rates LE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PS higher

In 31% of election polls, Ipsos rates PS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PVDA/PTB higher

In 43% of election polls, Ipsos rates PVDA/PTB higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Belgium - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Belgium from Ipsos shows the following results: PS 23.9%, MR 20%, Ecolo 14%, PVDA/PTB 14%, LE 13.8% and DéFI 3.9%. If an election were held in Belgium this Sunday, PS might gain the most in voter favorability with +15.9 growth since the last election. DéFI, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (+2.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Bart De Wever is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and LE. With 39.3% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (04.12.2023 - 11.12.2023).

Coalition possibilities

150
Majority requires 76 seats
PVDA
24
16%
PS
42
28%
ECO
25
16.7%
MR
35
23.3%
LE
24
16%
PS + Ecolo + LE
60.7%
PS + Ecolo + LE
60.7%
PS + Ecolo + PVDA/PTB
60.7%
PS + Ecolo + PVDA/PTB
60.7%
MR + Ecolo + LE
56.0%
MR + Ecolo + LE
56.0%
MR + Ecolo + PVDA/PTB
56.0%
MR + Ecolo + PVDA/PTB
56.0%
PS + MR
51.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Belgium was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 04.12.2023 and 11.12.2023 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PS 23.9%, MR 20%, Ecolo 14%, PVDA/PTB 14%, LE 13.8% and DéFI 3.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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