Belgium: Poll by Ipsos from 20.05.2024

Belgium: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
VB
26.8
+26.8
N-VA
20.6
+20.6
VO
14.3
+14.3
CD&V
12.2
+5.3
PVDA
8.9
-8.6
OVLD
8.2
+8.2
Groen
6.6
+6.6
Others
2.4
-73.2
Development since the last election on 09.06.2024
VB
+13.0
N-VA
+3.9
VO
+6.2
CD&V
+4.2
PVDA
-1.0
OVLD
+2.7
Groen
+1.9
Ipsos – 2000 respondents – 14.05.2024-20.05.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Belgium is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates CD&V lower

In 80% of election polls Ipsos rates CD&V lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Groen higher

In 33% of election polls, Ipsos rates Groen higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates N-VA higher

In 47% of election polls, Ipsos rates N-VA higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates OVLD higher

In 60% of election polls, Ipsos rates OVLD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PVDA/PTB higher

In 43% of election polls, Ipsos rates PVDA/PTB higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates VB higher

In 33% of election polls, Ipsos rates VB higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vooruit higher

In 47% of election polls, Ipsos rates Vooruit higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Belgium - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Belgium from Ipsos shows the following results: VB 26.8%, N-VA 20.6%, Vooruit 14.3%, CD&V 12.2%, PVDA/PTB 8.9%, OVLD 8.2% and Groen 6.6%. If an election were held in Belgium this Sunday, VB might gain the most in voter favorability with +13.0 growth since the last election. PVDA/PTB, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Bart De Wever is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and LE. With 48.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (14.05.2024 - 20.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

150
Majority requires 76 seats
PVDA
14
9.3%
VO
22
14.7%
Groen
10
6.7%
OVLD
13
8.7%
CD&V
19
12.7%
N-VA
31
20.7%
VB
41
27.3%
VB + N-VA + CD&V
60.7%
N-VA + Vooruit + CD&V + OVLD
56.7%
VB + N-VA + OVLD
56.7%
N-VA + Vooruit + CD&V + Groen
54.7%
N-VA + Vooruit + OVLD + Groen
50.7%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Belgium was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 14.05.2024 and 20.05.2024 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get VB 26.8%, N-VA 20.6%, Vooruit 14.3%, CD&V 12.2%, PVDA/PTB 8.9%, OVLD 8.2% and Groen 6.6%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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