countries.BE: Poll by Ipsos from 17.09.2024

countries.BE: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
MR
22.6
+22.6
PS
20.4
+20.4
PVDA
15.4
+5.2
ECO
9.8
+9.8
LE
8.4
+8.4
DéFI
6.2
+6.2
Others
17.2
-72.6
Development since the last election on 09.06.2024
MR
+12.3
PS
+12.4
PVDA
+5.5
ECO
+7.2
LE
+1.6
DéFI
+5.0
Ipsos – 600 respondents – 11.09.2024-17.09.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in countries.BE is expected to take place in 2029.

Low number of respondents

Only 600 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates DéFI lower

In 33% of election polls Ipsos rates DéFI lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Ecolo higher

In 38% of election polls, Ipsos rates Ecolo higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LE higher

In 36% of election polls, Ipsos rates LE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PS higher

In 31% of election polls, Ipsos rates PS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PVDA/PTB higher

In 43% of election polls, Ipsos rates PVDA/PTB higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

countries.BE - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Belgium from Ipsos shows the following results: MR 22.6%, PS 20.4%, PVDA/PTB 15.4%, Ecolo 9.8%, LE 8.4% and DéFI 6.2%. If an election were held in countries.BE this Sunday, PS might gain the most in voter favorability with +12.4 growth since the last election. LE, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (+1.6) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Alexander De Croo is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and LE. With 37.3% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 600 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (11.09.2024 - 17.09.2024).

Coalition possibilities

150
Majority requires 76 seats
PVDA
28
18.7%
PS
37
24.7%
ECO
18
12%
DéFI
11
7.3%
MR
41
27.3%
LE
15
10%
MR + PVDA/PTB + Ecolo
58.0%
MR + PVDA/PTB + Ecolo
58.0%
MR + Ecolo + LE + DéFI
56.7%
PS + PVDA/PTB + Ecolo
55.3%
PS + PVDA/PTB + Ecolo
55.3%
PS + Ecolo + LE + DéFI
54.0%
MR + PVDA/PTB + DéFI
53.3%
MR + PS
52.0%
PS + PVDA/PTB + DéFI
50.7%
MR + Ecolo + LE
49.3%
MR + Ecolo + LE
49.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Belgium was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 11.09.2024 and 17.09.2024 among 600 eligible voters. After this election poll would get MR 22.6%, PS 20.4%, PVDA/PTB 15.4%, Ecolo 9.8%, LE 8.4% and DéFI 6.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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