countries.BE: Poll by Ipsos from 21.11.2024

countries.BE: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
23.1
+1.4
PVDA
20.9
+7.8
MR
20.7
-5.9
ECO
13.5
+5.4
LE
7.3
-15.3
DéFI
5.7
+5.7
N-VA
3.2
+3.2
VB
1.6
+1.6
Others
4.0
-3.9
Development since the last election on 09.06.2024
PS
+15.1
PVDA
+11.0
MR
+10.4
ECO
+10.9
LE
+0.5
DéFI
+4.5
N-VA
-13.5
VB
-12.2
Ipsos – 581 respondents – 18.11.2024-21.11.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in countries.BE is expected to take place in 2029.

Low number of respondents

Only 581 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates DéFI lower

In 33% of election polls Ipsos rates DéFI lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Ecolo higher

In 38% of election polls, Ipsos rates Ecolo higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LE higher

In 36% of election polls, Ipsos rates LE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates N-VA higher

In 47% of election polls, Ipsos rates N-VA higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PS higher

In 31% of election polls, Ipsos rates PS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PVDA/PTB higher

In 43% of election polls, Ipsos rates PVDA/PTB higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates VB higher

In 33% of election polls, Ipsos rates VB higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

countries.BE - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Belgium from Ipsos shows the following results: PS 23.1%, PVDA/PTB 20.9%, MR 20.7%, Ecolo 13.5%, LE 7.3%, DéFI 5.7%, N-VA 3.2% and VB 1.6%. If an election were held in countries.BE this Sunday, PS might gain the most in voter favorability with +15.1 growth since the last election. N-VA, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-13.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Alexander De Croo is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and LE. With 30.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 581 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (18.11.2024 - 21.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

150
Majority requires 76 seats
PVDA
35
23.3%
PS
38
25.3%
ECO
22
14.7%
DéFI
9
6%
MR
34
22.7%
LE
12
8%
PS + PVDA/PTB + MR
71.3%
PS + PVDA/PTB + MR
71.3%
PS + PVDA/PTB + Ecolo
63.3%
PS + PVDA/PTB + Ecolo
63.3%
PS + MR + Ecolo
62.7%
PVDA/PTB + MR + Ecolo
60.7%
PVDA/PTB + MR + Ecolo
60.7%
PS + MR + LE
56.0%
PS + MR + LE
56.0%
PS + PVDA/PTB + DéFI
54.7%
PS + MR + DéFI
54.0%
PS + Ecolo + LE + DéFI
54.0%
PVDA/PTB + MR + DéFI
52.0%
MR + Ecolo + LE + DéFI
51.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Belgium was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 18.11.2024 and 21.11.2024 among 581 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PS 23.1%, PVDA/PTB 20.9%, MR 20.7%, Ecolo 13.5%, LE 7.3%, DéFI 5.7%, N-VA 3.2% and VB 1.6%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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