Berlin Parliamentary Election in Berlin: Polls, Candidates, and Possible Coalitions
Weighted average across all institutes. The bars show the current standing, the chips the swing since the last election. Election Trend for the Parliamentary Election in Berlin (as of 9 September 2026)
In the Election Trend, the governing alliance of CDU and SPD would take just 37.7% of the seats – too few for a majority of its own.
Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend in Berlin?
Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend in Berlin?
Leading the current PolitPro Election Trend for the Parliamentary Election in Berlin is Die Linke with 19.8%, followed by CDU with 19.6%, AfD with 17.9%, Grüne with 16.1%, SPD with 12.9%, BSW with 3.6% and FDP with 3.4%. Other parties achieve 6.7% of the votes.
How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend
How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend
The PolitPro Election Trend transcends a mere snapshot. We aggregate data from every relevant polling institute into a weighted average for the Parliamentary Election in Berlin. While the classic voting intention poll (“Who would you vote for if there were an election next Sunday?”) fluctuates due to methodological reasons, our Election Trend offers a statistically robust basis. It smooths out short-term outliers and reveals the true political dynamics over time.
Combining multiple data sources minimizes the risk of random effects. Every survey carries a margin of error, typically between 1.5% and 3%. Our poll check for Berlin precisely indicates whether a party's gain signals a lasting shift or simply falls within the statistical uncertainty of a single institute.
The calculation adheres to a transparent mathematical model: recent polls are weighted more heavily than older data. Each institute's historical accuracy also factors into the calculation to offset methodological bias. The result is a reliable trend line that precisely maps Berlin's party system.
Coalition Calculator: Possible Majorities for the Parliamentary Election in Berlin
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Scenarios: What if...?
Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.
PolitPro Analysis
Probability of an Absolute Majority
-
Linke
0%
-
CDU
0%
-
AfD
0%
Probability of Election Victory
-
Linke
52%
-
CDU
42%
-
AfD
5%
-
Grüne
<1%
-
SPD
<1%
Probability of Entering Parliament
-
BSW
1%
-
FDP
<1%
How does the PolitPro Analysis work?
How does the PolitPro Analysis work?
Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Projected composition of parliament
Projected composition of parliament
Based on the Election Trend, 5 parties are projected to secure seats in Berlin's state parliament: Die Linke with 30 seats, CDU with 30 seats, AfD with 27 seats, Grüne with 24 seats and SPD with 19 seats.
Berlin's Electoral System Explained
Berlin's Electoral System Explained
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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles
Electoral Threshold and Hurdles
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Government formation and coalition traditions
Government formation and coalition traditions
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How Polls Are Shifting Ahead of the Parliamentary Election in Berlin
Latest Election Polls from Polling Institutes
| Score | Institute | Date | Linke | CDU | AfD | Grüne | SPD | BSW | FDP | Other | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | INSA | 2 September 2026 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | |
| 85 | Infratest dimap | 31 August 2026 | 19.0 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | – | 9.0 | |
| 83 | Civey | 27 August 2026 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | |
| 83 | Forsa | 18 August 2026 | 22.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | |
| How reliable are the institutes? | |||||||||||
The Parliamentary Election in Berlin at a Glance
New faces and familiar names in the race for Berlin's City Hall
The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, brings together a mix of fresh and established lead candidates. The CDU is fielding Stefan Evers after incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew from the race. The Left Party is running with Elif Eralp, while Kristin Brinker is once again leading the AfD's campaign. The Greens have put forward Werner Graf as their candidate for Governing Mayor, backed by Bettina Jarasch. The SPD is placing its bet on Steffen Krach. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is entering the election for the first time with Alexander King as its lead candidate. The FDP is represented by Christoph Meyer. The election promises to be a close contest, with no clear frontrunner in sight.
Rent, Safety, Climate: The Key Issues in Berlin's Election Campaign
The campaign is dominated by Berlin's perennial hot-button issues: rents, public safety, and transportation. The CDU is focusing on economic policy, law and order, and housing construction. The Left Party is zeroing in on poverty, social inequality, and affordable housing. The AfD has made migration and public safety its core concerns, calling for a formal 'remigration program.' For the Greens, climate protection, affordable rents, and forward-thinking urban development are the priorities – including concepts like the 'sponge city.' The BSW is pushing for an active peace policy, social justice, and economic common sense. The FDP is backing a modernized public administration, top-quality education, and business-friendly policies.
A tight race and potential coalitions define the final stretch
Current polling shows a neck-and-neck race, which could make forming stable coalitions after September 20, 2026 a real challenge. On the left, the SPD, Greens, and Left Party are competing for many of the same voters, while on the right, the CDU and AfD are battling it out — especially on issues like migration and security. The FDP and BSW are hovering close to the five-percent threshold, adding another layer of complexity to the coalition math. Realistic outcomes could include three-party coalitions, such as CDU, Greens, and SPD, or a combination of the Left Party, Greens, and SPD. The weeks leading up to the election will be decisive, as the parties push to mobilize their supporters and make their core issues count.
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