Latest Opinion Poll for Berlin Election (Infratest dimap, August 21, 2021)

August 18, 2021 - August 21, 2021

1160 respondents

Next General Election in Berlin: September 20, 2026

The next General Election in Berlin takes place in 159 days.

Berlin's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 46.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

In the latest opinion poll for the Berlin election, conducted by Infratest dimap on August 21, 2021, SPD emerges as the frontrunner with 23%. Trailing are CDU: 19%, Grüne: 17%, Die Linke: 12%, AfD: 11% and FDP: 8%. Other parties secure 10% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Berlin
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

130
Majority requires 66 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Berlin election is 5%.

SPD + CDU + Grüne
Centre-Left
65.4%
SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
Left
57.7%
SPD + CDU + FDP
Centre
55.4%
SPD + Grüne + FDP
Left
53.8%
CDU + Grüne + FDP
Centre-Left
49.2%
SPD + CDU
Centre
46.2%
SPD + Grüne
Left
44.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to Infratest dimap data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Berlin parliament: SPD with 33 representatives, CDU with 27 representatives, Grüne with 25 representatives, Die Linke with 17 representatives, AfD with 16 representatives and FDP with 12 representatives.

The Electoral System in Berlin

Berlin's House of Representatives (Abgeordnetenhaus) elections utilize a personalized proportional representation system. Following the irregularities of the 2021 botched election and the subsequent 2023 repeat election, electoral organization faces intense scrutiny. The system involves first votes for direct constituency candidates and second votes for party lists at the district or state level, supplemented by compensatory seats to maintain overall proportionality.

Electoral Thresholds

Berlin enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, but with a critical basic mandate clause: a party securing at least one direct mandate gains entry to the Abgeordnetenhaus, its representation then reflecting its full second-vote share. In a city characterized by numerous fiercely contested neighborhoods (Kieze), this provision offers a vital safeguard for smaller parties with strong local bases.

Government Formation and Traditions

Berlin has earned a reputation as a laboratory for coalition governments. The city has experimented with a wide array of alliances, from Red-Red-Green (SPD-Left-Greens) to the current Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD). The metropolis's inherent political fragmentation frequently mandates protracted negotiations to unify the diverse interests of its varied districts and social milieus within the Senate.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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