Latest Opinion Poll for Berlin Election (INSA, April 20, 2021)

April 12, 2021 - April 20, 2021

1024 respondents

Next General Election in Berlin: September 20, 2026

The next General Election in Berlin takes place in 154 days.

Berlin's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 36.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

In the latest opinion poll for the Berlin election, conducted by INSA on April 20, 2021, Grüne emerges as the frontrunner with 25%. Trailing are SPD: 19%, CDU: 16%, Die Linke: 14%, AfD: 12% and FDP: 10%. Other parties secure 4% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Berlin
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Berlin election is 5%.

Grüne + SPD + CDU
Centre-Left
63.1%
Grüne + SPD + Die Linke
Left
60.8%
Grüne + SPD + FDP
Left
56.2%
Grüne + CDU + FDP
Centre-Left
53.1%
SPD + CDU + FDP
Centre
46.9%
Grüne + SPD
Left
46.2%
Grüne + CDU
Centre-Left
43.1%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Berlin parliament: Grüne with 34 representatives, SPD with 26 representatives, CDU with 22 representatives, Die Linke with 19 representatives, AfD with 16 representatives and FDP with 13 representatives.

The Electoral System in Berlin

Berlin's House of Representatives (Abgeordnetenhaus) elections utilize a personalized proportional representation system. Following the irregularities of the 2021 botched election and the subsequent 2023 repeat election, electoral organization faces intense scrutiny. The system involves first votes for direct constituency candidates and second votes for party lists at the district or state level, supplemented by compensatory seats to maintain overall proportionality.

Electoral Thresholds

Berlin enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, but with a critical basic mandate clause: a party securing at least one direct mandate gains entry to the Abgeordnetenhaus, its representation then reflecting its full second-vote share. In a city characterized by numerous fiercely contested neighborhoods (Kieze), this provision offers a vital safeguard for smaller parties with strong local bases.

Government Formation and Traditions

Berlin has earned a reputation as a laboratory for coalition governments. The city has experimented with a wide array of alliances, from Red-Red-Green (SPD-Left-Greens) to the current Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD). The metropolis's inherent political fragmentation frequently mandates protracted negotiations to unify the diverse interests of its varied districts and social milieus within the Senate.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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