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Latest Opinion Poll for Berlin Election (INSA, July 21, 2026)

July 14, 2026 - July 21, 2026

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Berlin: September 20, 2026

The next General Election in Berlin takes place in 41 days.

Berlin's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 36.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

According to the latest national poll in Berlin by INSA, AfD leads with 19%. They are followed by CDU: 18%, Die Linke: 18%, Grüne: 16%, SPD: 13%, BSW: 4% and FDP: 4%. Other parties secure 8% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Berlin
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Berlin
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

71

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Berlin election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • SPD
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Berlin parliament: AfD with 29 representatives, CDU with 28 representatives, Die Linke with 28 representatives, Grüne with 25 representatives and SPD with 20 representatives.

The Electoral System in Berlin

Berlin's House of Representatives (Abgeordnetenhaus) elections utilize a personalized proportional representation system. Following the irregularities of the 2021 botched election and the subsequent 2023 repeat election, electoral organization faces intense scrutiny. The system involves first votes for direct constituency candidates and second votes for party lists at the district or state level, supplemented by compensatory seats to maintain overall proportionality.

Electoral Thresholds

Berlin enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, but with a critical basic mandate clause: a party securing at least one direct mandate gains entry to the Abgeordnetenhaus, its representation then reflecting its full second-vote share. In a city characterized by numerous fiercely contested neighborhoods (Kieze), this provision offers a vital safeguard for smaller parties with strong local bases.

Government Formation and Traditions

Berlin has earned a reputation as a laboratory for coalition governments. The city has experimented with a wide array of alliances, from Red-Red-Green (SPD-Left-Greens) to the current Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD). The metropolis's inherent political fragmentation frequently mandates protracted negotiations to unify the diverse interests of its varied districts and social milieus within the Senate.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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