Latest Opinion Poll for Berlin Election (Institut Wahlkreisprognose, June 10, 2021)

June 3, 2021 - June 10, 2021

2450 respondents

Next General election in Berlin: September 20, 2026

The next General election in Berlin takes place in 194 days.

Berlin's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Institut Wahlkreisprognose projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 41.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut Wahlkreisprognose?

In the latest opinion poll for the Berlin election, conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose on June 10, 2021, SPD emerges as the frontrunner with 20.5%. Trailing are CDU: 18%, Grüne: 16%, Die Linke: 13%, FDP: 12.5%, AfD: 8.5% and Die PARTEI: 5%. Other parties secure 6.5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Berlin
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Berlin

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut Wahlkreisprognose Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Institut Wahlkreisprognose at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

130
Majority requires 66 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Berlin election is 5%.

SPD + CDU + Grüne
Centre-Left
58.5%
SPD + CDU + FDP
Centre
54.6%
SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
Left
53.1%
SPD + Grüne + FDP
Left
52.3%
CDU + Grüne + FDP
Centre-Left
49.2%
SPD + Grüne + Die PARTEI
Left
44.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Institut Wahlkreisprognose)

According to Institut Wahlkreisprognose data, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Berlin parliament: SPD with 29 representatives, CDU with 25 representatives, Grüne with 22 representatives, Die Linke with 18 representatives, FDP with 17 representatives, AfD with 12 representatives and Die PARTEI with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Berlin

Berlin's House of Representatives (Abgeordnetenhaus) elections utilize a personalized proportional representation system. Following the irregularities of the 2021 botched election and the subsequent 2023 repeat election, electoral organization faces intense scrutiny. The system involves first votes for direct constituency candidates and second votes for party lists at the district or state level, supplemented by compensatory seats to maintain overall proportionality.

Electoral Thresholds

Berlin enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, but with a critical basic mandate clause: a party securing at least one direct mandate gains entry to the Abgeordnetenhaus, its representation then reflecting its full second-vote share. In a city characterized by numerous fiercely contested neighborhoods (Kieze), this provision offers a vital safeguard for smaller parties with strong local bases.

Government Formation and Traditions

Berlin has earned a reputation as a laboratory for coalition governments. The city has experimented with a wide array of alliances, from Red-Red-Green (SPD-Left-Greens) to the current Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD). The metropolis's inherent political fragmentation frequently mandates protracted negotiations to unify the diverse interests of its varied districts and social milieus within the Senate.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

Found a Mistake?

Political data is constantly evolving. If you spot an error, please let us know. A brief reference to your source will help us verify and update the information.